And so it begins...
(CNN) – CNN’s poll of polls has been updated to reflect a new Newsweek poll .
Sen. Barack Obama has gained two percentage points in his lead over Sen. John McCain, according to the latest CNN poll of polls released Friday.
Obama now leads McCain by 6 percentage points – 46 percent to McCain’s 40 percent. In the previous CNN poll of polls, Obama’s lead was 4 percentage points.
I had envisioned a slightly larger upturn for Obama once the primary had concluded than this four, and now six point advantage over McCain. I reckon my crystal ball was a little cloudy. Still, according to yet another set of polls...
(CNN) – Barack Obama leading John McCain in the crucial swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, according to a new survey.
Obama lost the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania by 9 points — but a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows him leading McCain by 12 points, 52-40. In Ohio — a state Obama lost to Hillary Clinton by 10 points in March — he’s leading McCain 48-42. And in Florida, where he did not campaign this primary season and lost an unsanctioned Democratic contest, he leads McCain 47-43.
Admittedly, this is all just my gut feeling and pure guesswork and naught else on my part, but I just can't see McCain doing very well this fall and I'm still expecting Obama to win handily.
No one is excited about voting for McCain. The country's gone all batty for Obama. There is an enthusiasm there that I expect will clear any hurdles of ugly politicking on the Republican side or any vestiges of racism around our nation.
I see a Good Moon Rising.
But what do I know?
11 comments:
I hope your are right Dan. But here, in my neck of the woods, many Democrats are not falling in line behind Obama. They have "fears" about him. I guess they received the e-mails and believed them.
I was just chatting with a progressive fella, someone who said he'd probably vote for Obama in the fall - he sure couldn't vote for McCain! he said. BUT, his one concern is that, you know, he might be too sympathetic to them.
Them, who? I asked.
The Muslims over there. He was raised Muslim, wasn't he?
Man, I guess Mark Twain was right:
"A lie can get halfway around the world before the truth can even get its boots on."
There is an enthusiasm there that I expect will clear any hurdles of ugly politicking on the Republican side or any vestiges of racism around our nation.
I dunno, Dan. He was at that church for twenty years, and he didn't leave to repudiate Trinity's hateful theology, but to protect it from further scrutiny from the media.
...or do you mean to reference other people's vestiges of racism? :)
These are very early polls, Dan. They literally mean nothing at this point. Like an old "Tears for Fears" lyric... My features form with a change in the weather..." It's going to see-saw.
...
Oh, and What about all the ugly politicking on the Democratic side?
While much could change between now and November, El Ashley's claim that these polls mean Nothing goes too far. First, they consistently show Obama gaining--both in the states and nationally. The changes are all in one direction--and after McCain had 3 months to open a lead. There has not been any see-sawing since the end of the primaries.
Republican insiders are worried because these polls show McCain not getting his message out at all. He's losing every demographic except white evangelical males. He's losing the independents. He's losing women, Latinos, etc.
McCain's entire strategy seems to be: 1)Run for Bush's 3rd term--the 3rd term of the most unpopular 2nd term president in 100 years. 2) Hope Obama screws up or terrorists attack again or a smear sticks or Bush attacks Iran.
Much could happen between now and November, but this is a bigger lead than George W. Bush EVER had over either Gore or Kerry throughout the last 2 election cycles.
Further, these poll numbers come in the midst of polling that shows that 80% of the nation think the country is heading in the wrong direction (the direction McCain wants to continue) and trusts Dems more than the GOP to change direction. And, a new poll shows that 90% of white people now claim to be okay with a black president.
Also, Obama's organization is allowing him to campaign in all 50 states--something no presidential candidate has ever been able to do before. Thus, he will put into play so many states that McCain will be like the little Dutch boy trying to plug holes in the Dike--instead of needing either OH or FL, Obama has about 10 routes to electoral college victory. McCain can't stop them all--and is forced to play defense.
Marty, neither TX nor KY will go for Obama this year (maybe in '12), but the electoral college calculator shows that if the election were today, Obama would get between 280 and 295 electoral votes--and only needs 270 to win.
Dan, think about Obama winning the popular vote by 6% if these numbers stand in November: That would be the biggest popular vote margin since Reagan's win in 1988!
The wind is blowing toward change. My fear is that Obama is becoming too cautious in the general election and will thus fail to excite progressives to work hard for him. Still, every politician moves toward the center in the general election--it's nice to have the left not completely ignored as in the last 4 presidential election cycles!
Oh, and GOP insiders are expecting to lose another 20 seats in the House and 5-8 seats in the Senate, which would make a President Obama in a position to enact more of his agenda than any Democratic president since LBJ! Those losses will happen even if McCain somehow squeaks out a win--so much of McCain's agenda would be dead on arrival.
"Further, these poll numbers come in the midst of polling that shows that 80% of the nation think the country is heading in the wrong direction (the direction McCain wants to continue) and trusts Dems more than the GOP to change direction"
And this is why the Democratically Congress has negative ratings below even President Bush?
Congress has low ratings because (a) they haven't stopped the war which they were elected to do and (b) GOP obstructionism in the Senate. Neither translates into good news for McCain. The public's current answer is to elect more Democrats.
However, I admit that if Dems occupy the White House and control both houses of Congress (especially if they come close to a filibuster proof majority in the Senate) and fail to get results, the public will turn quickly on them. "Honeymoon periods" are notoriously shorter for Democratic presidents than for GOP ones. If Obama wins the White House, he will have to hit the ground running.
And this is why the Democratically Congress has negative ratings below even President Bush?
Congress as a whole has low ratings. Individual congressfolk in their own districts don't have Bush-low ratings.
What this means is that we don't like other people's congressfolk but are at least relatively pleased (or at least not as displeased as compared to Bush) with our own representatives.
Let's compare apples to apples.
And by the way, I have little access to computer this week, so you may not hear from me for a few days...
since anonymous took all the capitol letters i now am left with only lowercase. that being said if early polls were accurate this race would be between hillary and thompson.
october polls will look nothing like june's just as the november results will look nothing like october's polls. we americans like to change our minds.
Some fanatic posted three nutty posts. Deleted as spam.
If "anonymous" has some serious commentary, feel free to respond in an adult manner.
One comment the person made was "where are these poll numbers coming from? No one I know would vote for Obama."
That's the problem with anectdotal "evidence." While useful sometime, it's not the same as hard evidence.
No one - and I mean absolutely no one I personally know - has indicated that they would vote for McCain. That doesn't mean that no one will vote for McCain, just that I don't know them.
By the way, folks should check out http://www.270towin.com and click the 2008 simulation. It shows all the possibilities based on current polling, voting history, etc. I ran 20 simulations today and only came up with a McCain victory twice. Now, as November nears, if the race remains close in many states, this will change. But, if current trends continue, this site could become a mirror of election night results.
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