Thursday, March 6, 2008

Behold the birds of the air...


Chickadee and Waxwing
Originally uploaded by paynehollow
In the news...

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices were sent soaring above $105 a barrel Thursday after a surprise drop in U.S. crude oil supplies and OPEC's decision not to boost production sent oil to a record settle Wednesday.

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And more news telling us other ways that our auto-centric society costs, costs, costs...

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Traffic crashes cost American motorists more than $160 billion a year while inflicting a staggering per-person toll on small cities such as Little Rock, Arkansas, Columbia, South Carolina, and Pensacola, Florida, according to a AAA research report...

...Maryland-based Cambridge Systematics Inc., which conducted the research for the automobile association, found that crashes cost U.S. motorists $164.2 billion a year, or about $1,051 per person. That's more than double the $67.6 billion in annual costs from congestion, which works out to about $430 per person.

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And, at ELAshley's place, Eric is citing an economist who predicts dire days ahead due to our oil dependencies...

...It all boils down to this, Maxwell told EnergyTechStocks.com: We live in a world where there is only about 1.2% more oil available each year, not enough to keep up with 1.5% annual demand growth. Between now and 2010, this supply shortfall will be made up through a drawdown in inventories, helped out by a slowdown in demand in 2008 and 2009 due to a recession or near-recession in the U.S.

But in 2010, Maxwell said, the shortfall will become greater than can be made up by what’s still in inventory, and thus will begin a long period of global oil scarcity that will get worse starting in 2012 or 2013, which is when Maxwell foresees a “peak” in conventional oil production. It gets even worse in 2015, which is when he expects a peak in the production of all liquids, a category that includes condensates, tar sands oil and biodiesel.

Maxwell described the period 2010 through 2015 as the “letting down” of production. In 2015, he said, the all-liquids peak arrives, after which production “starts down,” even as demand continues up. He added that production will start down even though new oilfields will go into production, and even if there is only a 4.5% average annual depletion rate from existing fields, which is what Cambridge Energy Research Associates has optimistically concluded. (Others believe the depletion rate is significantly higher.)

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What is significant (and a little slimy) about this Maxwell scenario above is that it isn't coming from some "environmental wacko" but rather an investing "expert," who is telling people how best to invest in the pending crises (that's the slimy part...) It is becoming more evident that changes will be forced upon us. I'm wondering how we will embrace those changes?

Perhaps now that Cuba may be seeing some changes come their way, perhaps we can open our minds enough to learn some of their oil-free wisdom (without embracing any of their idiocies).

And that's some of the news that's fit to consider today.

We ought pay attention...

7 comments:

Eleutheros said...

If you've been keeping up with the news, this makes some eight or nine quarters where the Saudis have said they see no reason to increase output and decline to do so.

What is actually happening is they can't. They are at maximum capacity and cannot produce oil beyond it.

Peak Oil, coming to a world near you!

Dan Trabue said...

But, what if....????

I mean, human ingenuity...

And, and, nuclear....

or coal shoals or, maybe, MAYBE, fuel from garbage, you know, like in "Back to the Future?"

or, what if, you know, SOMETHING great happens and we find a way to keep over extending ourselves???

It could happen... right?

eyemkmootoo said...

Maybe I could just cut a hole in the floor board of my truck and go to work "Fred Flintstone" style.

Eleutheros said...

Dan:"It could happen... right?"

Riiiigghhht!
(in the voice of Patrick Warburton [Kronk])

Dan Trabue said...

Eleutheros, YOU watch Disney cartoons????

Eleutheros said...

Dan:"Eleutheros, YOU watch Disney cartoons????"

That surprises you?

Yes, I adore them. Those and Pixar, Dreams Work, Nickelodeon, etc. My absolute all favorite movie maker is Hayao Miyazaki [Spirited Away, Howl's Moving Castle, Valley of the Wind, Castle in the Sky].

We, of course, don't do broadcast TV or cable or such. So we rent or buy movies. On days such as we've had recently we put another log on the fire, pop up great tubs of popcorn, and have Movie Night.

We identify the actors (or voices) and all the other movies they've been in, look them up on the internet to see what else they've done and what they are up to.

Around our house, one does not ask for cheese on a sandwich. One asks for "Cheese, Grommet!" (along with the characteristic gesture). In getting ready to go to town and finding oneself trying to put on the work jeans instead, the comment is "They're the wrong trousers, and they've gone all wrong!"

If you've seen Dinsey's "Emperor's New Groove" .... when someone is making a gesture that no-one understands, the comment is "Doh, more broccoli??"

What, Dan, did you think we sit around all the time mirthlessly snarling at one another or something? No one has more fun than we do.

Eleutheros said...

And, oh, anytime anyone asks if someone needs help or needs spelled off, the answer is, "No, just leave me some ammo, water, chips if you've got 'em." (from Chicken Little)