Top reasons why I think Obama will win...
And in a landslide.
I've been saying for a while (since December-January) that I was
feeling pretty sure about an Obama presidency this fall. I'm prepared
to go even further now: I expect Obama will win in a landslide, leading the way for huge losses for the Republicans in Congress, as well.
Just an unprovable guess at this point, of course, but here's my
reasons for thinking thusly:
1. No significant group of citizens is excited about voting for McCain. People can and will go out to vote against someone, but voting against someone (Obama in this case) does not generate the excitement and numbers that genuine excitement FOR someone does.
2. There have been few significant complaints againt Obama's actual positions. His general perceived lack of experience may be of concern to many, but his ability to inspire and his reasoned plans, I believe, will overcome most of those concerns.
3. The complaints against Obama's Hopefulness ("He's all inspiration and no content,") will fall on deaf ears, mostly. Being inspirational is not a bad thing. In fact, most people think it is a good thing, I'd suggest. After eight years of a dismal presidency - one characterized by division and inspiring hatred and derision of our nation - people are hungry for a positive, inspirational individual looking to make a change. It's rather like the Reagan phenomena, only hopefully he'll use his ability to inspire for good and not evil.
4. The main targets of attacks against Obama have been very flimsy. Attacks on him because of a few words his former pastor said and attacks on him because of extraneous little things like whether or not he wears a flag pin, places his hand on his heart for the pledge, a line his wife said, blah, blah, blah. If that and his inexperience are all they have, I don't see the opposition winning over droves of people to vote against him.
5. Obama IS inspirational. People are EXCITED about voting for him. It's not a matter of feeling like you're voting for the lesser of two evils, but that many people feel like he's actually a positive
choice for President.
Young people, who traditionally have not turned out to vote in big numbers, are turning out in droves to vote for him, as are others. Enthusiastically so. People WANT to vote for him and I think this is huge. It remains to be seen, but I believe that once the nomination is settled, Obama (who polls show barely beating McCain now - but beating him nonetheless) will experience a big upsurge in support and there will be even more enthusiasm for him.
6. McCain represents - like it or not - the Old Bush way of doing things and that way has not been at all popular. Obama represents a new Way. He strikes folk as a uniter, not a divider. In real life and not words only.
The Republicans' war; their approach to economic, environmental and energy policies (or lack thereof); their approach to torture, human rights and imprisonment; ALL these policies have been deemed unsuccessful and leading us in the wrong way. People will not be excited about voting for more of the same, which McCain represents.
7. The "strengths" of the Republican approach - the ways they've used in the past to win - are starting to lose their strength, or at least against this Teflon Candidate. Charges of being a terrorist-supporter or appeaser, of being unpatriotic, of being a closet Muslim, of being
"black," are not sticking. I think, at least with Obama, the tactics of rumor-mongering, fear-mongering and division based on wedge issues are losing their edge. Again, time will tell. These approaches are probably the Republicans' last best hope for not losing it all this election - the presidency AND Congress - but I'm doubting it.
On that topic, my friend, Michael, has a good run-down of how bad-off the Fall election is looking for Republicans across the board here.
Based on ALL of this, I'm predicting not only an Obama victory this year, but an Obama landslide. What do you think?
They just lost a seat in Mississippi for crying out loud. Mississippi!!!
ReplyDeleteThey should just concede now and save themselves the embarrassment. Nah, just kidding.
McCain for Secretary of the VA!
Race is still a factor--as are the GOP standards of fears, smears, and, er, gay marriage. So, I am not predicting victory, much less a landslide. It is possible, but not likely according to the Electoral College math.
ReplyDeleteTake Mississippi: With 36% African-Americans (highest in the nation), it has the highest number of black elected officials of any state. But the white majority rules. Whites only gave 15% of their votes to Kerry and Obama scares many of them more. It would take at least 40% white vote for Obama, plus HUGE black turnout to flip Mississippi. I don't think it will happen.
What is more likely is that Obama will force the GOP to spend time and money in Mississippi that they need to spend elsewhere--and that energized African-Americans at the polls for Obama will help send other Dems to Congress and the Senate. This starts turning the Red South purple.
Texas is in play for the first time in decades, but only if blacks and Latinos come together, along with white liberals in Austin, etc.
I've done the electoral math--Obama can win this thing, but it won't be easy. Race, fears, smears, and distractions like gay marriage will be significant hurdles. To counteract them, we need to be calling all our friends and relatives (especially in GOP districts) and urging them to vote Obama--asking whether they fear a black man as president more than they fear McCain's killing their jobs and starting more wars.
I'm helping to register new voters every day between now and November.
(I do think Virginia and North Carolina will go for Obama, but not, sadly, Kentucky.)
Well, time will tell, Michael. I'll have to say that asking folk whether they fear a black man more than McCain as president is probably not the best way to win them over - suggesting racism on their part.
ReplyDeleteCertainly, race is still there as a factor, but I'm honestly thinking that it's less a factor. Those who'd actually be opposed to a candidate because of race, I can't see them being that large in number nor especially enthused about McCain.
Again, I think the power of voting against something pales in comparison to the energy behind going to the polls and actually voting FOR something. That's what it comes down to, for me: I don't think folk are excited at all about voting either for McCain or against Obama. I do think there's a tremendous enthusiasm behind the notion of voting FOR Obama. It's just a guess, but I think time will show a significant upswing in support for Obama.
The latest poll I saw showed that either Clinton OR Obama can beat McCain right now, but just by a few points. I think, come June, we'll start seeing polls showing Obama with a double digit lead and that he'll carry that to November.
Just my best guess, for what it's worth.
And Alan, I think, BEFORE McCain came out in favor of torture, I'd have felt much more confident that placing him over the VA would have been a good thing (not that he'd accept). Now, I'm not so sure. It's certainly more of an honorable fit to most of the distinguished part of his career than president.
ReplyDeleteDan, did you see Fri's Courier-Journal about how much blatant racism the Obama campaign workers are facing in their calls and door-to-door canvassing? Again, this is not insurmountable (no other black candidate ever got THIS far), but it's there.
ReplyDeleteAlso, while polls show both Dems beating McCain in the POPULAR vote, so far Clinton wins the Electoral College (all of the states Kerry won except Wisconsin, but then she wins OH, MI, PA, and FL) whereas Obama narrowly loses. Of course, Obama puts more states in play as swing states and some of that Electoral College math is based on not-recent polling data. He can win. He can even win a landslide.
But it is too early to predict that he WILL win a landslide. Voter registration, and GOTV will be key. I worry about KY for the Fall and Tues. will tell me much.