We of course have no way of knowing this early on in the presidential race, but my early hunch says Obama will be our next president. This, mainly because of the latest polls.
From
Zogby:
Obama Leads All Republicans in General Election Head to Head Contests
Obama would defeat all Republican opponents, including John McCain of Arizona, Rudy Giuliani of New York City, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, and Fred Thompson of Tennessee in prospective presidential contests, the poll shows.
I point this out with the note that Obama is not my first choice - that would be Kucinich. I'm just saying this is my early hunch of how things will turn out.
Anyone else wanting to go out on the limb with early predictions?
I predict that HRC will win the nomination by a narrow margin, lasting well until Super Tuesday. The GOP candidate will be either Romney or Thompson.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking about voting for Glenn Reynolds as a write-in candidate, unless the Libertarians break with tradition and nominate a sane person.
Man, I hope you're wrong about Hillary. I think that's just about the only thing the Dems could do to have a chance at losing this election (something they're admittedly pretty good at).
ReplyDeleteWell, John Edwards leads in Iowa in 2 polls, with Obama 2nd, and Clinton 3rd. Much as I would love to vote for the first black president or the first woman president, out of the front runners (e.g., NOT Kucinich, unfortunately), I'm leaning toward Edwards. His has been the campaign of big ideas to date: universal healthcare paid for by rolling back the Bush tax cuts, especially on corporations; eradicating poverty, etc. Obama is short on the concrete plans, so far. Charisma alone isn't enough--we had that with Bill Clinton.
ReplyDeleteAnd my reasons for refusing to endorse Hillary have been stated repeatedly. But she could outspend the others and get the nomination.
If Edwards adopts the majority of Al Gore's environmental recommendations, as he seems to be indicating, I'll order the signs tomorrow.
And some combination of an Obama/Edward or Edwards/Obama ticket would be unbeatable.
I seem to once again agree with lots here. Kucinich would be nice. . .but. . .Edwards is a good bet I think. I personally couldn't resist voting for a woman. If that woman is Hillary, I'd vote for Hillary. I'd do it just to see how it would play out.
ReplyDeleteI have used questional science and faulty logic to predict the next president based on the names 6 million worldwide gamers have given to their World of Warcraft characters. Al Gore appears 100 times, as does Obama. Mitt Romney has a paltry 5 characters hacking and slashing their way to glory with his name. Reagan would win if he were still among the living (251). More at Walking the Berkshires. http://greensleeves.typepad.com/berkshires/2007/05/wow_picks_the_p.html
ReplyDeleteObama will do better than Bill Bradley because Obama is an establishment candidate -- he's just new to the establishment.
ReplyDeleteObama would do well in a general election, so as long as he stays away from Presidential debates.
Thompson's challenge will be crashing his wave of populism against the party establishment. The GOP seems determined to infuriate its own base, which will help Thompson, but that will only go so far, especially with finances.
I predict that evangelical support will be greatly diminished for the GOP should Romney be the candidate, even though evangelical leaders campaign hard from him. The evangelical voters themselves will be more inclined to stay home.
I've been predicting for over a year that Al Gore will be the Democratic Nominee. I've not changed my mind.
ReplyDeleteThe Republican nominee may not have even appeared. Thompson, if he gets in, will run away with it. If not, someone else will step up.
Although the GOP tends to give losers a second chance (e.g. Nixon, Reagan), the Democrats rarely do. It won't be Gore.
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